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Sales forecasting and market tracking studies can take a number of forms and methodologies. Survey approaches to sales forecasting typically are applied when expert forecasting (experts estimate the market), judgmental bootstrapping (rule based decisions derived from experts that describe how to use available secondary market information), conjoint analysis (estimation of consumer intentions based on product attributes that are important in the decision) and intentions evaluations (consumer self reported intentions of future purchases) are to be made. These approaches use judgmental data.
Source: J. Scott Armstrong and Roderick Brodie, Forecasting for Marketing, in Graham J. Hooley and Michael K. Hussey (Eds.), Quantitative Methods in Marketing, Second Edition. London : International Thompson Business Press, 1999, pp. 92-119.
General Measures That Are Part Of Sales Forecasting and Market Tracking Surveys
Respondent Demographics
Purchase role: consumer, purchaser, influencer
Economic ability to purchase
Awareness and knowledge of the product
Interest in and Desire to purchase
Economic Demand
Economic purchase patterns: The nature of economic demand - cyclical (cars) –countercyclical (potatoes) - stable (extreme luxury cars)
Current purchases rate
Current repurchases rate
Likelihood of purchasing substitute products – competitive products
Repurchase
Cultural trends related to purchase
Likelihood of purchase/repurchase
Increase/decrease in general population awareness
Responsiveness to incentives
Weighting
Past accuracy - forecast vs. actual
Sector or demographic weighting
For Industrial or B2B Products
Purchase Investment à Return on Sales
Technology Adoption Process
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